Constitutional Ambiguity and Electoral Deadlock: Misunderstandings Between FGS & FMSs in the 2025–2026 Transition

Somalia's trajectory toward a stable federal democracy is repeatedly undermined by escalating tensions between the Federal Government (FGS) and the Federal Member States (FMSs), obstructing the pathway to the 2025/2026 electoral transition. Using content analysis of constitutional documents and reports from the UN, the International Crisis Group and Somali think tanks, with a case-study focus on Puntland and Jubaland in late 2024 and early 2025, the poster examines how differing interpretations of constitutional reform and electoral procedure fuel political deadlock. It concludes that without an inclusive political settlement the legitimacy of the 2025/2026 electoral outcome will remain at risk, and recommends revitalising the National Consultative Council, third-party-mediated dialogue, and consensus on contentious constitutional articles before elections.